Future #2 – Super Fire Administration

Imagine it is the year 2034. Reflect on how we got to the future described below. To participate, select “Give Input to Future(s).” (Note: When answering the questions, please imagine and envision ‘how could we get here?’ We want to understand the series of events that could lead to that future.)

FUTURE STATE: The United States is experiencing significantly more wildfire, a longer wildfire season, and fires in regions where they were not prevalent in 2014. High fuel loads result in frequent, large, and damaging fires, raising the risk to both the public and firefighters. As a result, the public expects aggressive fire suppression. With a declining focus on land management by the Federal government, ecosystems and resources are increasingly at risk and the rate of wildland fire fuels accumulation continues to increase. Political pressure has resulted in the creation of a ‘super fire administration’ that removes wildland fire management from the Forest Service and DOI purview and separates it from other types of land management.

  • Required: What trends, events, or shocks (i.e. unexpected occurrences with major implications) could drive us to this future?
  • Optional: What changes to strategy, organizational structure, capabilities, and infrastructure would be necessary to address the future we are facing?
  • Optional:What information could help mitigate the risks presented by this future?
  • Optional:What information could help capitalize on opportunities presented by this future?
$r.eval("new-idea-button")

Future #2 – Super Fire Administration

Super Fire Administration

- A Congress that is increasingly divided and can only agree on simple, basic, short-term solutions in order to run the country. - Political interests/lobbyists protecting big business interests who pressure Congress to spend more and more money to protect their interests. - The reality of larger fires, climate change, public fears, and expectations the government must ensure safety and clean air at all times for all ...more »

Submitted by (@karenmiranda)

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Future #2 – Super Fire Administration

Super Administration

A dysfunctional system of government that is divided along too many moral, economic and political agendas does not provide for a logical, systematic system of covering resource and fire management. The current system leads to chaos and inefficiency in dealing with the situation. This process continues to exacerbate the problem of escalating suppression which then leads to the development of more fire fighters at the ...more »

Submitted by (@jim.erickson)

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Future #2 – Super Fire Administration

FMO

Budgets.

FS using P-code savings when DOI can not, declining the DOI firefighting organization continually. Continuation of cross agency fires especially in the WUI environment with State and Private sector having, but not liking, to take more responsibility.

Submitted by (@tracyswenson)

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Future #2 – Super Fire Administration

Are these really the correct assumptions for Future #2?

If the scenario calls for a future super firefighting organization due to increasing wildfires and intense pressure to suppress to protect lives and communities. this does not necessarily imply a declining focus by the federal government on land management. Maybe it leads to an increasing role by states, tribes, communities, non-governmental organizations and private industry to increase their role in managing landscapes, ...more »

Submitted by (@gamlam1107)

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