Future #1: Hot, Dry, and Out of Control

We're here already

Our current trend carries us to this future. Indeed, we are already here in many respects. No additional events or shocks are needed, especially if the current political gridlock continues. The main things I see that would be different is the shear number of species listed under the Endangered Species Act due to major vegetation changes brought by climate change and human population growth. I would not be surprised ...more »

Submitted by (@lulu10)

What information could help mitigate the risks presented by this future?:

In rangelands, much better understanding of how natural events, such as defoliator outbreaks and fire, shape plant community composition and structure. In all ecosystems, a much greater willingness to experiment with radically different approaches to land management that draws on so-called traditional ecological knowledge and includes bet-hedging strategies to address the potential impacts of climate change on pant communities, fuel beds, and fire regimes. Improvements to climate predictions and downscaling of such projections to scales that better allow managers to conduct more realistic impact analyses should continue.

What information could help capitalize on opportunities presented by this future? :

Generally, the same types of information that would help us mitigate the risks are likely to present us with opportunities we could capitalize on, provided political gridlock doesn't wreck everything first.


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