Campaign: Future #3 – Resilient Landscapes

"Climate Change"

A 25 year drought cycle started in 1996. If this cycle continues as predicted, a 25 year "wet cycle" should start in 2021. This in itself will result in fewer "mega-fires". What this means for fire agencies is, the time to take advantage of current "teachable moments" from the historical fires of 2011 will start diminishing. As the climate starts to abate during the anticipated "wet cycle", it will become increasingly ...more »

Submitted by (@lmcneely)

What changes to strategy, organizational structure, capabilities, & infrastructure would be needed? :

Fire agencies should capitalize to the fullest extent the current memories of historic fire activity-especially the 2011 fire season, and begin mitigation planning, CWPP's, etc. now.

What information could help mitigate the risks presented by this future? :

"At Risk" communities should be prioritied, and those most "at risk" should initiate their mitigation activites as soon as possible. Whether a "wet cycle" materializes or not, this is still the best course of action.

What information could help capitalize on opportunities presented by this future? :

Once a "wet cycle" has been in place long enough for documentation, agencies could look at shifting emphasis from "response" to "mitigation", and take advantage of the "wet cycle" to implement as many mitigation projects as possible to prepare for the next "drought cycle".

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Campaign: Future #3 – Resilient Landscapes

Healthy Future

- The agencies got wiser and more serious about educating the public and Congress for the long-term, rather than focusing on year-to-year funding issues. - Agencies engaged all sectors of society in supporting activities which lead to this healthy, rationale future. - Educated and every more vocal public began demanding more "fire prevention" (i.e. Rx fire) to check fire danger, perhaps even staging protests upon Congress, ...more »

Submitted by (@karenmiranda)

What changes to strategy, organizational structure, capabilities, & infrastructure would be needed? :

- Need to place stronger decisionmakers and collaborators in senior leadership positions, so long-term decisions would be made across landscapes for the greatest good, rather than allowing in-fighting among various agencies.

- Fire leaders would need to match the "CEO" model of accountability and effectiveness, rather than the government bureaucrat or more protected "SES" model, which may mean changes to civil service benefits and retirement system.

-Organization would need to become more efficient and accountable, quasi-public, perhaps even running on some kind of profit model tied to mitigating large fire costs.

- Agency public affairs program would need to become more professionalized, transparent, and responsive; more integrated with leadership to provide more current and transparent information.

- Inventory and monitoring would no longer be optional, but required and integrated into every fire management plan and action.

- Rx fire and smoke management training would need to become requirements for all firefighters across all agencies, and the "fire manager" model would need to trump the "firefighter/solider" model of professsion.

- Private, NGO, and even volunteer/citizen firefighters would need to become more integrated into wildland fire and Rx fire projects.

What information could help mitigate the risks presented by this future? :

- Evaluative data on skills sets/tests for leaders with the requirements to lead collaborative

- What are the current training/qualification outputs from various agency and training centers, PTFC, NAFRI, etc.?

- Comprehensive fuels treatments, wildfire, and smoke history database for all lands across entire country.

- Public opinion and knowledge assessment data on levels of understanding on Rx, smoke, and risk issues

What information could help capitalize on opportunities presented by this future? :

- Where are the available sources/pools of most adequate leaders to manage this effort at high levels?

- Where are the best/most efficient sources of Rx fire and smoke training for large numbers that will be needed?

-Identification for training/qualifying volunteer/citizen fire managers to work at local/private levels.

- Polling/assessment of industry to identify where corporations/NGOs/others would be willing to bear costs (and gain public visibility) to support this future.

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Campaign: Changing Climatic Conditions Effects on Landscapes

Connecting the dots

With a changing climate, species shifts will occur in the next 20 years with high elevation species declining or disappearing; snowpack has been declining the past 20+ years which will affect water quantity and quality; cold temperature aquatic species, and recreation and tourism. Current vulnerabilities will be exacerbated- fire risk increasing; more extreme floods and droughts. These are well described and modeled in ...more »

Submitted by (@gwynmyer)

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