Future #2 – Super Fire Administration

Imagine it is the year 2034. Reflect on how we got to the future described below. To participate, select “Give Input to Future(s).” (Note: When answering the questions, please imagine and envision ‘how could we get here?’ We want to understand the series of events that could lead to that future.)

FUTURE STATE: The United States is experiencing significantly more wildfire, a longer wildfire season, and fires in regions where they were not prevalent in 2014. High fuel loads result in frequent, large, and damaging fires, raising the risk to both the public and firefighters. As a result, the public expects aggressive fire suppression. With a declining focus on land management by the Federal government, ecosystems and resources are increasingly at risk and the rate of wildland fire fuels accumulation continues to increase. Political pressure has resulted in the creation of a ‘super fire administration’ that removes wildland fire management from the Forest Service and DOI purview and separates it from other types of land management.

  • Required: What trends, events, or shocks (i.e. unexpected occurrences with major implications) could drive us to this future?
  • Optional: What changes to strategy, organizational structure, capabilities, and infrastructure would be necessary to address the future we are facing?
  • Optional:What information could help mitigate the risks presented by this future?
  • Optional:What information could help capitalize on opportunities presented by this future?
$r.eval("new-idea-button")

Campaign: Future #2 – Super Fire Administration

Super Administration

A dysfunctional system of government that is divided along too many moral, economic and political agendas does not provide for a logical, systematic system of covering resource and fire management. The current system leads to chaos and inefficiency in dealing with the situation. This process continues to exacerbate the problem of escalating suppression which then leads to the development of more fire fighters at the ...more »

Submitted by (@jim.erickson)

What changes to strategy, organizational structure, capabilities, & infrastructure would be needed? :

Nothing, we are well on this course.

What information could help mitigate the risks presented by this future? :

Have Congress adopt the proposed suppression funding model being offered in numerous legislations.

Voting

3 votes
Active

Campaign: Future #2 – Super Fire Administration

Are these really the correct assumptions for Future #2?

If the scenario calls for a future super firefighting organization due to increasing wildfires and intense pressure to suppress to protect lives and communities. this does not necessarily imply a declining focus by the federal government on land management. Maybe it leads to an increasing role by states, tribes, communities, non-governmental organizations and private industry to increase their role in managing landscapes, ...more »

Submitted by (@gamlam1107)

What changes to strategy, organizational structure, capabilities, & infrastructure would be needed? :

If the natural gas industry can re-vitalize itself based on new technology, than the traditional wood utilization industry could too - maybe with some incentives and investments in some of the new wood and biomass utilization technologies being worked on.

What information could help mitigate the risks presented by this future? :

More emphasis on fuels reduction and biomass utilization approaches to assist with community protection is drastically needed. While important, fire suppression should be supported and maintained, but not be the focus of future efforts.

Voting

1 vote
Active

Campaign: Future #2 – Super Fire Administration

Super Fire Administration

- A Congress that is increasingly divided and can only agree on simple, basic, short-term solutions in order to run the country. - Political interests/lobbyists protecting big business interests who pressure Congress to spend more and more money to protect their interests. - The reality of larger fires, climate change, public fears, and expectations the government must ensure safety and clean air at all times for all ...more »

Submitted by (@karenmiranda)

What changes to strategy, organizational structure, capabilities, & infrastructure would be needed? :

Creation of a new mega-progam under USFA withiin the Department of Homeland Security.

More hiring, training, and salaries commensurate with CalFire model, i.e. "professionalization" of firefighting

A national firefighters union would likely emerge

A "soldier" model (versus science model) of firefighting

Most likely abandoning/weakening ESA, Clean Air Act, NEPA, and other legislation that currently required long-term planning and land management

Nationwide travel will end up being a requirement.

All incident model would be more likely, as firefighters are pulled for other disasters whenever needed.

What information could help mitigate the risks presented by this future? :

- Objective review and comparisons of salary/benefit/training models available in federal, state, local jurisdictions

- Study of most painless way for agency to facilitate/accept an employee union

- Public opinion (marketting-style) data on levels of fire/smoke tolerance vs. need to protect values

Voting

3 votes
Active

Campaign: Future #2 – Super Fire Administration

FMO

Budgets.

FS using P-code savings when DOI can not, declining the DOI firefighting organization continually. Continuation of cross agency fires especially in the WUI environment with State and Private sector having, but not liking, to take more responsibility.

Submitted by (@tracyswenson)

What changes to strategy, organizational structure, capabilities, & infrastructure would be needed? :

Strategy would have to be geared towards better/more intense protection of values at risk. Values at risk would be more human based, like infrastructure, smoke impacts to large urban area's, and the WUI geographical regions particularly. No more timber, cheat grass, wildlife or land based values driving fire strategy/tactics.

Unfortunately IMO, we'd have to be more structured, likend to military or R5 organizationally. Probably still have regions but not necessarily what we have now.

What information could help mitigate the risks presented by this future? :

Explaining to line officers that they no longer lead the Fire program on a local basis. Show them the pro's and con's of this and TELL them not ask them if it's going to work. Resdide to the fact that the ones that have to experience the change will be unhappy until they are retired, and educate and incorporate the new line officers into the program as they come into place. This will also be important at the local and State GOV levels but don't have the experience to address that

Voting

2 votes
Active