Future #2 – Super Fire Administration

Imagine it is the year 2034. Reflect on how we got to the future described below. To participate, select “Give Input to Future(s).” (Note: When answering the questions, please imagine and envision ‘how could we get here?’ We want to understand the series of events that could lead to that future.)

FUTURE STATE: The United States is experiencing significantly more wildfire, a longer wildfire season, and fires in regions where they were not prevalent in 2014. High fuel loads result in frequent, large, and damaging fires, raising the risk to both the public and firefighters. As a result, the public expects aggressive fire suppression. With a declining focus on land management by the Federal government, ecosystems and resources are increasingly at risk and the rate of wildland fire fuels accumulation continues to increase. Political pressure has resulted in the creation of a ‘super fire administration’ that removes wildland fire management from the Forest Service and DOI purview and separates it from other types of land management.

  • Required: What trends, events, or shocks (i.e. unexpected occurrences with major implications) could drive us to this future?
  • Optional: What changes to strategy, organizational structure, capabilities, and infrastructure would be necessary to address the future we are facing?
  • Optional:What information could help mitigate the risks presented by this future?
  • Optional:What information could help capitalize on opportunities presented by this future?