Future #1: Hot, Dry, and Out of Control

Imagine it is the year 2034. Reflect on how we got to the future described below. To participate, select “Give Input to Future(s).” (Note: When answering the questions, please imagine and envision ‘how could we get here?’ We want to understand the series of events that could lead to that future.)

FUTURE STATE: The United States is experiencing significantly more wildfire, a longer wildfire season, and fires in regions where they were not prevalent in 2014. High fuel loads result in frequent, large and damaging fires, raising the risk to both the public and firefighters. The public is alarmed and losing faith in wildland fire management. Congress determines that more funding is not the answer and fire budgets decrease due to higher priority events (e.g., overseas conflict, national debt crisis). State and local fire teams are in the lead and the Federal government has shifted to a support role. Public health impacts have risen significantly due to smoke from fires, resulting in more fatalities.

  • Required: What trends, events, or shocks (i.e. unexpected occurrences with major implications) could drive us to this future?
  • Optional: What changes to strategy, organizational structure, capabilities, and infrastructure would be necessary to address the future we are facing?
  • Optional:What information could help mitigate the risks presented by this future?
  • Optional:What information could help capitalize on opportunities presented by this future?