Seems like a useful exercise is to evaluate results from a suite of models that predict the effects of climate change on fuels and wildfire. Multiple models exist, and a model intercomparison that includes both process-based models and empirical models will identify commonality, uncertainties, and gaps in predictions. The intercomparison should assess historical (paleo?) times as well as future times. Multiple challenges ...more »
Changing Climatic Conditions Effects on Landscapes
To assess how changing climatic conditions may affect wildland fire management in 10-20 years, we need your perspective on long-term challenges, risks, and opportunities that may impact the future of wildland fire management. For example, consider the following questions:
- How might landscapes across the United States look different 10-20 years from now?
- What climate change-related trends (e.g. spread of invasive species) do you foresee in 10-20 years?
- How might climate change affect public/private infrastructure in 10-20 years?
- What would be the most profound impacts of climate change on the public/private infrastructure in 10 to 20 years?
Feel free to answer any of these questions, or come up with your own scenarios of how the future might look different in 10-20 years due to changing climatic conditions.
What should be avoided is creating large patches of homogenous forest structure simply to affect fire behavior. The attractiveness of mechanical treatments followed by burn treatments as a rapid means of achieving forest restoration goals is tempered somewhat by tradeoffs in effects, as the combination treatment tends to increase cover of exotics and decrease cover of coarse woody debris, which offers key habitat for ...more »
With a changing climate, species shifts will occur in the next 20 years with high elevation species declining or disappearing; snowpack has been declining the past 20+ years which will affect water quantity and quality; cold temperature aquatic species, and recreation and tourism. Current vulnerabilities will be exacerbated- fire risk increasing; more extreme floods and droughts. These are well described and modeled in ...more »
The Cohesive Strategy includes a goal for building resilient landscapes in the face of climate change. Perhaps this group can clarify how to set measurable objectives that would lead us to achieving this. We have oriented our fire management goals around restoring fire regimes for decades. Is this still appropriate considering that the climate is shifting? The term "resilience" is so ambiguous that it makes a poor ...more »
As I understand that the quadrennial is to make stabs into decades of future management it should go without saying that what we're looking at now is the beginning of the new paradigm. That forests are our greatest single American resource in staving off and mitigating climate change. In as much as that it is essential and imperative to act with consciousness and to be proactive. We are facing the quintessential feedback ...more »
While Climate Change is certainly an important issue to plan for, it should not dominate or distract from the conversation on how to manage public lands in the future. Under current climatic conditions, we have mismanaged our forests and prairies. By aggressively suppressing fires and not allowing thinning projects to come to completion, we have allowed particular species to dominate their environments and our forests ...more »
Fast-moving climate change impacts mean that scientists can't necessarily be "ahead" of management in evaluating and advising adaptation actions. Fed. managers need to be active participants in scientific studies, and in making more critical observations. Time to break down the artifical separation between the fed research communities and the management community.