Administration, US Forest Service, Bureau of Land Management (BLM)

The USFS and BLM should recognize that a portion of their forces are fire fighters and should be treated as safety employees.

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Idea No. 17

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50 votes

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"Wild Ideas"

Changing Climatic Conditions Effects on Landscapes
To assess how changing climatic conditions may affect wildland fire management in 10-20 years, we need your perspective on long-term challenges, risks, and opportunities that may impact the future of wildland fire management. For example, consider the following questions:
- How might landscapes across the United States look different 10-20 years from now?
- What climate change-related trends (e.g. spread of invasive species) do you foresee in 10-20 years?
- How might climate change affect public/private infrastructure in 10-20 years?
- What would be the most profound impacts of climate change on the public/private infrastructure in 10 to 20 years?
Feel free to answer any of these questions, or come up with your own scenarios of how the future might look different in 10-20 years due to changing climatic conditions.
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Evolving Risk in Public and Firefighter Safety
Mitigating risk to responders and the public has long been a paramount consideration for wildland fire managers. We need your perspectives on potential trends that might impact public and firefighter safety in in 10-20 years. For example, consider the following questions:
- In 10-20 years will the type and degree of wildland fire safety issues that citizens and firefighters face be the same or different from today?
- How might the geographic distribution of risk and safety issues differ from today?
- How will homes in the wildland urban interface (WUI) be protected in 10-20 years?
- In 10-20 years, how will wildland firefighter safety be managed?
Feel free to answer any of these questions, or come up with your own scenarios of how the future might look different in 10-20 years with regard to public and firefighter safety.
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Water Quality and Quantity
Population growth and rising demand for water may play an important role in how wildland fire is managed 10-20 years in the future. What challenges, risks, and opportunities do you foresee with the availability and quality of future freshwater supplies? For example, consider the following questions:
- In 10-20 years, what will the availability of fresh surface water look like in the western United States? What about in other areas of the country?
- In 10-20 years how will water management policies affect wildland fire management within watersheds?
- How might increasing water demand affect wildland fire management and public perceptions about the use of scarce water supplies to fight wildland fire?
Feel free to answer any of these questions, or come up with your own scenarios of what the future will look like.
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Technology and Program Infrastructure
To assess how changes in technology, facilities, training, and workforce management may affect wildland fire management 10-20 years into the future, we need your input. For example, consider the following questions:
- In 10-20 years, how will developments in technology change the way wildland fire is managed? What might be the role of unmanned aerial vehicles (drones)?
- How will infrastructure (constructed assets) for managing wildland fire be maintained 10-20 years from now? What trends in infrastructure management might emerge?
- In 10-20 years, what will be the challenges for recruiting and managing the wildland firefighting workforce? What changes might emerge in the way the workforce is trained?
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"Wild Card" Issues

The key question underlying the 2014 QFR is “what else aren’t we seeing?” The four main QFR focus areas cover items that federal wildland fire managers consider to be of the highest priority, and how the future will look different in each of those four areas. But we also want to capture any other issues worthy of consideration. We invite you to identify any other challenges, risks, or opportunities (and related impacts) that may not fit neatly in any of the four focus areas, and may alter the way that wildland fire managers plan for and respond to wildland fires 10-20 years into the future.

What other issues–beyond the four focus areas of the 2014 QFR–may effect wildland fire management in 10-20 years?

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Alternative Futures

Future #1: Hot, Dry, and Out of Control
Imagine it is the year 2034. Reflect on how we got to the future described below. To participate, select “Give Input to Future(s).” (Note: When answering the questions, please imagine and envision ‘how could we get here?’ We want to understand the series of events that could lead to that future.)

FUTURE STATE: The United States is experiencing significantly more wildfire, a longer wildfire season, and fires in regions where they were not prevalent in 2014. High fuel loads result in frequent, large and damaging fires, raising the risk to both the public and firefighters. The public is alarmed and losing faith in wildland fire management. Congress determines that more funding is not the answer and fire budgets decrease due to higher priority events (e.g., overseas conflict, national debt crisis). State and local fire teams are in the lead and the Federal government has shifted to a support role. Public health impacts have risen significantly due to smoke from fires, resulting in more fatalities.
- Required: What trends, events, or shocks (i.e. unexpected occurrences with major implications) could drive us to this future?
- Optional: What changes to strategy, organizational structure, capabilities, and infrastructure would be necessary to address the future we are facing?
- Optional:What information could help mitigate the risks presented by this future?
- Optional:What information could help capitalize on opportunities presented by this future?
$r.eval("new-idea-button")
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Future #2 – Super Fire Administration
Imagine it is the year 2034. Reflect on how we got to the future described below. To participate, select “Give Input to Future(s).” (Note: When answering the questions, please imagine and envision ‘how could we get here?’ We want to understand the series of events that could lead to that future.)

FUTURE STATE: The United States is experiencing significantly more wildfire, a longer wildfire season, and fires in regions where they were not prevalent in 2014. High fuel loads result in frequent, large, and damaging fires, raising the risk to both the public and firefighters. As a result, the public expects aggressive fire suppression. With a declining focus on land management by the Federal government, ecosystems and resources are increasingly at risk and the rate of wildland fire fuels accumulation continues to increase. Political pressure has resulted in the creation of a ‘super fire administration’ that removes wildland fire management from the Forest Service and DOI purview and separates it from other types of land management.
- Required: What trends, events, or shocks (i.e. unexpected occurrences with major implications) could drive us to this future?
- Optional: What changes to strategy, organizational structure, capabilities, and infrastructure would be necessary to address the future we are facing?
- Optional:What information could help mitigate the risks presented by this future?
- Optional:What information could help capitalize on opportunities presented by this future?
$r.eval("new-idea-button")
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Future #3 – Resilient Landscapes
Imagine it is the year 2034. Reflect on how we got to the future described below. To participate, select “Give Input to Future(s).” (Note: When answering the questions, please imagine and envision ‘how could we get here?’ We want to understand the series of events that could lead to that future.)

FUTURE STATE: The public is increasingly confident in the abilities of the Federal wildland fire management community to protect lives, homes, and resources, and supports proactive wildland fire management. Prescribed burns are a readily accepted practice and have resulted in more resilient landscapes and lesser fuel loads. Public health and smoke issues are lower due to a selective approach to prescribed burns (e.g., in the winter season) that reduces ozone impacts and particulate matter in the air.
- Required: What trends, events, or shocks (i.e. unexpected occurrences with major implications) could drive us to this future?
- Optional: What changes to strategy, organizational structure, capabilities, and infrastructure would be necessary to address the future we are facing?
- Optional:What information could help mitigate the risks presented by this future?
- Optional:What information could help capitalize on opportunities presented by this future?
$r.eval("new-idea-button")
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Future #4 – Radical Change
Imagine it is the year 2034. Reflect on how we got to the future described below. To participate, select “Give Input to Future(s).” (Note: When answering the questions, please imagine and envision ‘how could we get here?’ We want to understand the series of events that could lead to that future.)

FUTURE STATE: Radical new technologies and markets have created dramatic opportunities for the wildland fire management community. Despite a lower budget, the community has been able to prioritize the funds that it does have to achieve a sustainable landscape and significantly decreased public health impacts.
- Required:What trends, events, or shocks (i.e. unexpected occurrences with major implications) could drive us to this future?
- Optional:What changes to strategy, organizational structure, capabilities, and infrastructure would be necessary to address the future we are facing?
$r.eval("new-idea-button")
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